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Forecasting 2003
February 13, 2003 - Rob Lane
(www)
Hope I'm not out of line, but this reminds me of a discussion that came up last spring when Voros was presenting a study he had made of some of the previous year's predictions. Here is a post I made at the time:
> As a sort of control, do you happen to know what the results are if > you simply plug in the previous year's performance as your > prediction? This would probably have to omit the minor leaguers > and would rack up some bad scores for players moving to/from > Colorado, but it would establish a baseline for prediction systems, > yes?
(Link above)
I dropped out of further discussion because you guys got all statistically and started talking about "disaggregating errors" and such things and scared me off, but what I wanted to suggest at the time was a suite of baseline predictions, all mechanical, against which other systems could be compared. Baseline #0 would just be the previous year's numbers reentered for each player; subsequent systems would add some straightforward refinement similar to those that have already been discussed here.
Regardless of the above, I'm looking forward to seeing how this study pans out.
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